To predict the future with certainty.

To identify potential risks and opportunities.

To develop a single, comprehensive plan for the future.

To create a static and inflexible strategy.

Identifying trends and drivers of change.

Developing a single, comprehensive plan.

Creating multiple plausible scenarios.

Evaluating the implications of each scenario.

Uncertainty is ignored as it cannot be predicted.

Uncertainty is embraced and used to create a range of scenarios.

Uncertainty is minimized by focusing on the most likely future.

Uncertainty is eliminated through extensive data analysis.

Scenario planning focuses on short-term goals, while strategic planning focuses on long-term goals.

Scenario planning is more rigid and structured than strategic planning.

Scenario planning considers a wider range of possible futures than strategic planning.

Scenario planning is less data-driven than strategic planning.

It enhances organizational resilience.

It helps identify emerging opportunities.

It reduces the need for flexibility and adaptability.

It promotes strategic thinking and innovation.

One

Two

Three to five

More than ten

Trend analysis

Expert interviews

Quantitative modeling

Scenario writing

To generate a single, comprehensive plan for the future.

To identify key trends and drivers of change.

To develop multiple plausible scenarios.

To evaluate the implications of each scenario.

By providing a clear and detailed roadmap for the future.

By identifying potential risks and opportunities.

By eliminating uncertainty and providing a single best course of action.

By creating a static and inflexible strategy.

Identifying trends and drivers of change.

Developing a single, comprehensive plan.

Creating multiple plausible scenarios.

Evaluating the implications of each scenario.

They provide input and insights during the scenario development process.

They are responsible for implementing the chosen scenario.

They are not involved in scenario planning as it is a purely technical exercise.

They are only consulted after the scenarios have been developed.

By providing a clear and detailed roadmap for the future.

By identifying potential risks and opportunities.

By creating a static and inflexible strategy.

By encouraging experimentation and innovation.

Scenario planning is a subset of risk management.

Risk management is a subset of scenario planning.

Scenario planning and risk management are independent processes.

Scenario planning and risk management are mutually exclusive.

By providing a clear and detailed roadmap for the future.

By identifying potential risks and opportunities.

By creating a static and inflexible strategy.

By promoting a culture of complacency and risk-taking.

Leaders are responsible for developing and implementing the chosen scenario.

Leaders should not be involved in scenario planning as it is a technical exercise.

Leaders play a crucial role in promoting a culture of scenario thinking and learning.

Leaders are solely responsible for identifying trends and drivers of change.