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Mathematical Methods for Agricultural Risk Assessment

Description: This quiz is designed to assess your understanding of Mathematical Methods for Agricultural Risk Assessment. It covers various aspects of agricultural risk assessment, including probability distributions, statistical methods, and decision analysis.
Number of Questions: 14
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Tags: agricultural risk assessment probability distributions statistical methods decision analysis
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What is the probability of obtaining a yield of at least 100 bushels per acre if the yield distribution is normally distributed with a mean of 120 bushels per acre and a standard deviation of 20 bushels per acre?

  1. 0.8413

  2. 0.9772

  3. 0.1587

  4. 0.0228


Correct Option: A
Explanation:

The probability of obtaining a yield of at least 100 bushels per acre can be calculated using the standard normal distribution. The z-score for a yield of 100 bushels per acre is (100 - 120) / 20 = -1.00. The probability of obtaining a z-score of -1.00 or higher is 0.8413.

A farmer is considering two different crop varieties, A and B. Variety A has a yield distribution with a mean of 100 bushels per acre and a standard deviation of 20 bushels per acre. Variety B has a yield distribution with a mean of 120 bushels per acre and a standard deviation of 30 bushels per acre. Which variety has the lower risk of yield loss?

  1. Variety A

  2. Variety B

  3. Both varieties have the same risk of yield loss

  4. Cannot be determined from the given information


Correct Option: A
Explanation:

The risk of yield loss is measured by the variance of the yield distribution. The variance of Variety A is 20^2 = 400, while the variance of Variety B is 30^2 = 900. Therefore, Variety A has the lower risk of yield loss.

A farmer is considering two different irrigation systems, A and B. System A has a fixed cost of $10,000 and a variable cost of $10 per acre-inch of water. System B has a fixed cost of $15,000 and a variable cost of $5 per acre-inch of water. At what level of water usage (in acre-inches) does System B become more cost-effective than System A?

  1. 1000 acre-inches

  2. 2000 acre-inches

  3. 3000 acre-inches

  4. 4000 acre-inches


Correct Option: B
Explanation:

The total cost of System A is $10,000 + $10x, where x is the number of acre-inches of water used. The total cost of System B is $15,000 + $5x. System B becomes more cost-effective than System A when $10,000 + $10x < $15,000 + $5x. Solving this inequality, we get x > 2000. Therefore, System B becomes more cost-effective than System A at a level of water usage of 2000 acre-inches.

A farmer is considering two different pest control strategies, A and B. Strategy A has a 90% chance of being effective and costs $10 per acre. Strategy B has a 70% chance of being effective and costs $5 per acre. If the farmer's expected yield loss due to pests is $20 per acre, which strategy should the farmer choose?

  1. Strategy A

  2. Strategy B

  3. Both strategies have the same expected cost

  4. Cannot be determined from the given information


Correct Option: A
Explanation:

The expected cost of Strategy A is (0.9 * $10) + (0.1 * $20) = $11. The expected cost of Strategy B is (0.7 * $5) + (0.3 * $20) = $10.50. Therefore, Strategy A has the lower expected cost and should be chosen by the farmer.

A farmer is considering two different crop rotation systems, A and B. System A has a 10% chance of resulting in a yield loss of 20%, a 30% chance of resulting in a yield increase of 10%, and a 60% chance of resulting in no change in yield. System B has a 20% chance of resulting in a yield loss of 30%, a 40% chance of resulting in a yield increase of 20%, and a 40% chance of resulting in no change in yield. Which system has the lower risk of yield loss?

  1. System A

  2. System B

  3. Both systems have the same risk of yield loss

  4. Cannot be determined from the given information


Correct Option: A
Explanation:

The risk of yield loss is measured by the expected value of the yield loss distribution. The expected yield loss for System A is (0.1 * -0.2) + (0.3 * 0.1) + (0.6 * 0) = -0.02. The expected yield loss for System B is (0.2 * -0.3) + (0.4 * 0.2) + (0.4 * 0) = -0.06. Therefore, System A has the lower risk of yield loss.

A farmer is considering two different marketing strategies, A and B. Strategy A has a 60% chance of resulting in a price of $10 per bushel, a 30% chance of resulting in a price of $8 per bushel, and a 10% chance of resulting in a price of $6 per bushel. Strategy B has a 40% chance of resulting in a price of $12 per bushel, a 40% chance of resulting in a price of $10 per bushel, and a 20% chance of resulting in a price of $8 per bushel. Which strategy has the higher expected price?

  1. Strategy A

  2. Strategy B

  3. Both strategies have the same expected price

  4. Cannot be determined from the given information


Correct Option: B
Explanation:

The expected price for Strategy A is (0.6 * $10) + (0.3 * $8) + (0.1 * $6) = $9.20. The expected price for Strategy B is (0.4 * $12) + (0.4 * $10) + (0.2 * $8) = $10.00. Therefore, Strategy B has the higher expected price.

A farmer is considering two different investment opportunities, A and B. Investment A has a 70% chance of yielding a return of 10%, a 20% chance of yielding a return of 5%, and a 10% chance of yielding a return of -5%. Investment B has a 50% chance of yielding a return of 15%, a 30% chance of yielding a return of 10%, and a 20% chance of yielding a return of 0%. Which investment has the higher expected return?

  1. Investment A

  2. Investment B

  3. Both investments have the same expected return

  4. Cannot be determined from the given information


Correct Option: B
Explanation:

The expected return for Investment A is (0.7 * 0.1) + (0.2 * 0.05) + (0.1 * -0.05) = 0.07. The expected return for Investment B is (0.5 * 0.15) + (0.3 * 0.1) + (0.2 * 0) = 0.105. Therefore, Investment B has the higher expected return.

A farmer is considering two different insurance policies, A and B. Policy A has a premium of $100 and a deductible of $500. Policy B has a premium of $150 and a deductible of $250. If the farmer's expected loss is $400, which policy should the farmer choose?

  1. Policy A

  2. Policy B

  3. Both policies have the same expected cost

  4. Cannot be determined from the given information


Correct Option: B
Explanation:

The expected cost of Policy A is $100 + $500 * 0.4 = $300. The expected cost of Policy B is $150 + $250 * 0.4 = $250. Therefore, Policy B has the lower expected cost and should be chosen by the farmer.

A farmer is considering two different loan options, A and B. Loan A has an interest rate of 5% and a repayment period of 10 years. Loan B has an interest rate of 6% and a repayment period of 5 years. If the farmer needs to borrow $100,000, which loan should the farmer choose?

  1. Loan A

  2. Loan B

  3. Both loans have the same total cost

  4. Cannot be determined from the given information


Correct Option: A
Explanation:

The total cost of Loan A is $100,000 * (1 + 0.05)^10 - $100,000 = $162,889.46. The total cost of Loan B is $100,000 * (1 + 0.06)^5 - $100,000 = $133,822.58. Therefore, Loan A has the lower total cost and should be chosen by the farmer.

A farmer is considering two different irrigation systems, A and B. System A has a fixed cost of $10,000 and a variable cost of $5 per acre-inch of water. System B has a fixed cost of $15,000 and a variable cost of $3 per acre-inch of water. At what level of water usage (in acre-inches) does System B become more cost-effective than System A?

  1. 2000 acre-inches

  2. 3000 acre-inches

  3. 4000 acre-inches

  4. 5000 acre-inches


Correct Option: B
Explanation:

The total cost of System A is $10,000 + $5x, where x is the number of acre-inches of water used. The total cost of System B is $15,000 + $3x. System B becomes more cost-effective than System A when $10,000 + $5x < $15,000 + $3x. Solving this inequality, we get x > 3000. Therefore, System B becomes more cost-effective than System A at a level of water usage of 3000 acre-inches.

A farmer is considering two different crop varieties, A and B. Variety A has a yield distribution with a mean of 100 bushels per acre and a standard deviation of 20 bushels per acre. Variety B has a yield distribution with a mean of 120 bushels per acre and a standard deviation of 30 bushels per acre. Which variety has the higher probability of yielding at least 125 bushels per acre?

  1. Variety A

  2. Variety B

  3. Both varieties have the same probability

  4. Cannot be determined from the given information


Correct Option: B
Explanation:

The probability of obtaining a yield of at least 125 bushels per acre can be calculated using the standard normal distribution. The z-score for a yield of 125 bushels per acre for Variety A is (125 - 100) / 20 = 1.25. The z-score for a yield of 125 bushels per acre for Variety B is (125 - 120) / 30 = 0.17. The probability of obtaining a z-score of 0.17 or higher is 0.5675. The probability of obtaining a z-score of 1.25 or higher is 0.1056. Therefore, Variety B has the higher probability of yielding at least 125 bushels per acre.

A farmer is considering two different pest control strategies, A and B. Strategy A has a 90% chance of being effective and costs $10 per acre. Strategy B has a 70% chance of being effective and costs $5 per acre. If the farmer's expected yield loss due to pests is $20 per acre, which strategy should the farmer choose?

  1. Strategy A

  2. Strategy B

  3. Both strategies have the same expected cost

  4. Cannot be determined from the given information


Correct Option: A
Explanation:

The expected cost of Strategy A is (0.9 * $10) + (0.1 * $20) = $11. The expected cost of Strategy B is (0.7 * $5) + (0.3 * $20) = $10.50. Therefore, Strategy A has the lower expected cost and should be chosen by the farmer.

A farmer is considering two different crop rotation systems, A and B. System A has a 10% chance of resulting in a yield loss of 20%, a 30% chance of resulting in a yield increase of 10%, and a 60% chance of resulting in no change in yield. System B has a 20% chance of resulting in a yield loss of 30%, a 40% chance of resulting in a yield increase of 20%, and a 40% chance of resulting in no change in yield. Which system has the lower risk of yield loss?

  1. System A

  2. System B

  3. Both systems have the same risk of yield loss

  4. Cannot be determined from the given information


Correct Option: A
Explanation:

The risk of yield loss is measured by the expected value of the yield loss distribution. The expected yield loss for System A is (0.1 * -0.2) + (0.3 * 0.1) + (0.6 * 0) = -0.02. The expected yield loss for System B is (0.2 * -0.3) + (0.4 * 0.2) + (0.4 * 0) = -0.06. Therefore, System A has the lower risk of yield loss.

A farmer is considering two different marketing strategies, A and B. Strategy A has a 60% chance of resulting in a price of $10 per bushel, a 30% chance of resulting in a price of $8 per bushel, and a 10% chance of resulting in a price of $6 per bushel. Strategy B has a 40% chance of resulting in a price of $12 per bushel, a 40% chance of resulting in a price of $10 per bushel, and a 20% chance of resulting in a price of $8 per bushel. Which strategy has the higher expected price?

  1. Strategy A

  2. Strategy B

  3. Both strategies have the same expected price

  4. Cannot be determined from the given information


Correct Option: B
Explanation:

The expected price for Strategy A is (0.6 * $10) + (0.3 * $8) + (0.1 * $6) = $9.20. The expected price for Strategy B is (0.4 * $12) + (0.4 * $10) + (0.2 * $8) = $10.00. Therefore, Strategy B has the higher expected price.

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