Sensitivity Analysis

Description: This quiz is designed to assess your understanding of Sensitivity Analysis, a technique used in engineering economics to evaluate the impact of changes in input variables on the outcome of a project or decision.
Number of Questions: 15
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Tags: engineering economics sensitivity analysis project evaluation decision making
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What is the primary purpose of Sensitivity Analysis?

  1. To identify the most influential input variables in a project or decision.

  2. To determine the range of possible outcomes for a project or decision.

  3. To assess the impact of changes in input variables on the outcome of a project or decision.

  4. To optimize the input variables to achieve the best possible outcome.


Correct Option: C
Explanation:

Sensitivity Analysis is used to understand how changes in input variables affect the outcome of a project or decision. By analyzing the sensitivity of the outcome to changes in input variables, decision-makers can identify the most influential factors and make informed decisions.

Which of the following is NOT a common method used in Sensitivity Analysis?

  1. Scenario Analysis

  2. Monte Carlo Simulation

  3. Tornado Diagram

  4. Linear Programming


Correct Option: D
Explanation:

Linear Programming is an optimization technique used to find the optimal solution to a linear objective function subject to linear constraints. It is not typically used in Sensitivity Analysis, which focuses on assessing the impact of changes in input variables on the outcome of a project or decision.

In Scenario Analysis, multiple scenarios are created by varying the values of input variables. What is the purpose of creating these scenarios?

  1. To identify the most likely outcome of a project or decision.

  2. To determine the range of possible outcomes for a project or decision.

  3. To assess the impact of changes in input variables on the outcome of a project or decision.

  4. To optimize the input variables to achieve the best possible outcome.


Correct Option: B
Explanation:

In Scenario Analysis, multiple scenarios are created to explore different possible outcomes of a project or decision. By varying the values of input variables, decision-makers can identify the range of possible outcomes and make informed decisions based on this information.

Monte Carlo Simulation is a powerful tool used in Sensitivity Analysis. What is the underlying principle behind Monte Carlo Simulation?

  1. It uses historical data to predict future outcomes.

  2. It generates random values for input variables based on their probability distributions.

  3. It calculates the expected value and standard deviation of the outcome.

  4. It optimizes the input variables to achieve the best possible outcome.


Correct Option: B
Explanation:

Monte Carlo Simulation is a technique that uses random sampling to generate multiple possible outcomes of a project or decision. It generates random values for input variables based on their probability distributions, and then calculates the outcome for each set of generated values. This process is repeated multiple times to obtain a distribution of possible outcomes.

What is a Tornado Diagram used for in Sensitivity Analysis?

  1. To identify the most influential input variables in a project or decision.

  2. To determine the range of possible outcomes for a project or decision.

  3. To assess the impact of changes in input variables on the outcome of a project or decision.

  4. To optimize the input variables to achieve the best possible outcome.


Correct Option: A
Explanation:

A Tornado Diagram is a graphical representation that shows the impact of changes in input variables on the outcome of a project or decision. It ranks the input variables based on their sensitivity, with the most influential variables at the top. This helps decision-makers identify the variables that have the greatest impact on the outcome and focus their attention on those variables.

Which of the following is NOT a benefit of conducting Sensitivity Analysis?

  1. It helps identify the most influential input variables in a project or decision.

  2. It provides a range of possible outcomes for a project or decision.

  3. It allows decision-makers to make informed decisions based on the sensitivity of the outcome to changes in input variables.

  4. It eliminates the need for making assumptions about the values of input variables.


Correct Option: D
Explanation:

Sensitivity Analysis does not eliminate the need for making assumptions about the values of input variables. It is a technique that helps decision-makers understand the impact of changes in input variables on the outcome of a project or decision, but it still requires decision-makers to make assumptions about the values of these variables.

What is the primary limitation of Sensitivity Analysis?

  1. It can be time-consuming and computationally intensive.

  2. It requires a large amount of data to be effective.

  3. It is only applicable to projects or decisions with a small number of input variables.

  4. It is not able to predict the future accurately.


Correct Option: A
Explanation:

Sensitivity Analysis can be time-consuming and computationally intensive, especially when dealing with complex projects or decisions with a large number of input variables. This is because it requires multiple iterations of calculations to assess the impact of changes in input variables on the outcome.

In the context of Sensitivity Analysis, what is meant by the term "base case"?

  1. The most likely scenario or set of input values.

  2. The worst-case scenario or set of input values.

  3. The best-case scenario or set of input values.

  4. The average scenario or set of input values.


Correct Option: A
Explanation:

In Sensitivity Analysis, the base case refers to the most likely scenario or set of input values. It is the starting point for the analysis, and changes are made to input variables around this base case to assess the impact on the outcome.

Which of the following is NOT a common type of sensitivity analysis?

  1. One-way sensitivity analysis

  2. Two-way sensitivity analysis

  3. Three-way sensitivity analysis

  4. Global sensitivity analysis


Correct Option: C
Explanation:

Three-way sensitivity analysis is not a common type of sensitivity analysis. One-way sensitivity analysis, two-way sensitivity analysis, and global sensitivity analysis are more commonly used.

What is the primary objective of conducting a sensitivity analysis?

  1. To identify the most influential input variables.

  2. To determine the range of possible outcomes.

  3. To assess the impact of changes in input variables on the outcome.

  4. All of the above.


Correct Option: D
Explanation:

The primary objective of conducting a sensitivity analysis is to identify the most influential input variables, determine the range of possible outcomes, and assess the impact of changes in input variables on the outcome.

Which of the following is NOT a common method for conducting sensitivity analysis?

  1. Scenario analysis

  2. Monte Carlo simulation

  3. Tornado diagram

  4. Regression analysis


Correct Option: D
Explanation:

Regression analysis is not a common method for conducting sensitivity analysis. Scenario analysis, Monte Carlo simulation, and tornado diagram are more commonly used.

What is the primary limitation of using a tornado diagram for sensitivity analysis?

  1. It can only be used for a small number of input variables.

  2. It does not provide a quantitative measure of sensitivity.

  3. It is difficult to interpret.

  4. All of the above.


Correct Option: B
Explanation:

The primary limitation of using a tornado diagram for sensitivity analysis is that it does not provide a quantitative measure of sensitivity. It only shows the relative importance of input variables, but it does not provide a numerical value for the sensitivity.

Which of the following is NOT a common type of scenario analysis?

  1. Best-case scenario

  2. Worst-case scenario

  3. Most likely scenario

  4. Expected value scenario


Correct Option: D
Explanation:

Expected value scenario is not a common type of scenario analysis. Best-case scenario, worst-case scenario, and most likely scenario are more commonly used.

What is the primary advantage of using Monte Carlo simulation for sensitivity analysis?

  1. It can be used for a large number of input variables.

  2. It provides a quantitative measure of sensitivity.

  3. It is easy to interpret.

  4. All of the above.


Correct Option: D
Explanation:

The primary advantage of using Monte Carlo simulation for sensitivity analysis is that it can be used for a large number of input variables, it provides a quantitative measure of sensitivity, and it is easy to interpret.

Which of the following is NOT a common output of a sensitivity analysis?

  1. A list of the most influential input variables.

  2. A range of possible outcomes.

  3. A tornado diagram.

  4. A scatter plot.


Correct Option: D
Explanation:

A scatter plot is not a common output of a sensitivity analysis. A list of the most influential input variables, a range of possible outcomes, and a tornado diagram are more commonly used.

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