Decision Theory

Description: This quiz covers fundamental concepts and techniques in Decision Theory, a branch of mathematics that deals with making optimal decisions under uncertainty.
Number of Questions: 14
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Tags: decision theory probability utility risk aversion
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In Decision Theory, what is the primary goal of a decision-maker?

  1. Maximizing the expected value of the outcome

  2. Minimizing the risk of making a wrong decision

  3. Balancing the potential gains and losses

  4. Avoiding making any decisions


Correct Option: A
Explanation:

The primary goal in Decision Theory is to make decisions that maximize the expected value of the outcome, considering the probabilities and potential payoffs of different choices.

Which concept in Decision Theory quantifies the desirability of different outcomes?

  1. Expected Value

  2. Utility

  3. Risk Aversion

  4. Regret


Correct Option: B
Explanation:

Utility is a measure of the desirability or satisfaction associated with different outcomes. It allows decision-makers to compare and rank outcomes based on their preferences.

What is the relationship between utility and expected value in Decision Theory?

  1. Utility is always proportional to expected value.

  2. Utility is independent of expected value.

  3. Utility can be greater or less than expected value, depending on the decision-maker's preferences.

  4. Utility is always equal to expected value.


Correct Option: C
Explanation:

The relationship between utility and expected value depends on the decision-maker's preferences. Utility can be greater than expected value if the decision-maker is risk-averse, or less than expected value if the decision-maker is risk-seeking.

Which decision criterion is commonly used when the decision-maker is risk-averse?

  1. Maximin Criterion

  2. Maximax Criterion

  3. Expected Value Criterion

  4. Regret Criterion


Correct Option: A
Explanation:

The Maximin Criterion is often used when the decision-maker is risk-averse. It involves choosing the decision that maximizes the minimum possible payoff, ensuring a certain level of protection against the worst-case scenario.

In Decision Theory, what is the difference between a decision tree and an influence diagram?

  1. Decision trees are used for sequential decisions, while influence diagrams are used for simultaneous decisions.

  2. Decision trees are used for uncertain events, while influence diagrams are used for certain events.

  3. Decision trees are used for single-person decisions, while influence diagrams are used for multi-person decisions.

  4. Decision trees are used for qualitative analysis, while influence diagrams are used for quantitative analysis.


Correct Option: A
Explanation:

Decision trees are used to represent sequential decision-making problems, where decisions are made in a step-by-step manner. Influence diagrams, on the other hand, are used to represent simultaneous decision-making problems, where multiple decisions are made at the same time.

Which concept in Decision Theory measures the decision-maker's sensitivity to changes in probabilities?

  1. Risk Aversion

  2. Expected Value

  3. Regret

  4. Utility


Correct Option: A
Explanation:

Risk Aversion measures the decision-maker's sensitivity to changes in probabilities. It quantifies the extent to which the decision-maker prefers outcomes with certain payoffs over outcomes with uncertain payoffs.

What is the relationship between risk aversion and the shape of the utility function?

  1. Risk-averse decision-makers have a concave utility function.

  2. Risk-averse decision-makers have a convex utility function.

  3. Risk-averse decision-makers have a linear utility function.

  4. Risk-averse decision-makers have a constant utility function.


Correct Option: A
Explanation:

Risk-averse decision-makers typically have a concave utility function, which means that the marginal utility of money decreases as wealth increases. This implies that they are willing to take less risk to gain additional wealth.

Which decision criterion is commonly used when the decision-maker is risk-seeking?

  1. Maximax Criterion

  2. Maximin Criterion

  3. Expected Value Criterion

  4. Regret Criterion


Correct Option: A
Explanation:

The Maximax Criterion is often used when the decision-maker is risk-seeking. It involves choosing the decision that maximizes the maximum possible payoff, aiming for the highest potential reward.

In Decision Theory, what is the difference between a state of nature and an action?

  1. A state of nature is an event that is beyond the decision-maker's control, while an action is a decision that the decision-maker can make.

  2. A state of nature is a decision that the decision-maker can make, while an action is an event that is beyond the decision-maker's control.

  3. A state of nature is a possible outcome of a decision, while an action is a choice that leads to that outcome.

  4. A state of nature is a hypothetical scenario, while an action is a real-world event.


Correct Option: A
Explanation:

In Decision Theory, a state of nature refers to an event or outcome that is beyond the decision-maker's control, while an action is a decision or choice that the decision-maker can make to influence the outcome.

Which concept in Decision Theory measures the decision-maker's regret for making a particular decision?

  1. Risk Aversion

  2. Expected Value

  3. Regret

  4. Utility


Correct Option: C
Explanation:

Regret measures the decision-maker's feeling of disappointment or dissatisfaction for making a particular decision, especially when compared to the outcome of alternative decisions that could have been made.

What is the relationship between regret and the shape of the utility function?

  1. Decision-makers with a concave utility function experience more regret than those with a convex utility function.

  2. Decision-makers with a convex utility function experience more regret than those with a concave utility function.

  3. Decision-makers with a linear utility function experience more regret than those with a constant utility function.

  4. Decision-makers with a constant utility function experience more regret than those with a linear utility function.


Correct Option: A
Explanation:

Decision-makers with a concave utility function typically experience more regret than those with a convex utility function. This is because the marginal utility of money decreases as wealth increases for risk-averse decision-makers, leading to greater disappointment when they make decisions that result in lower payoffs.

Which decision criterion is commonly used when the decision-maker is ambiguity-averse?

  1. Maximin Criterion

  2. Maximax Criterion

  3. Expected Value Criterion

  4. Regret Criterion


Correct Option: A
Explanation:

The Maximin Criterion is often used when the decision-maker is ambiguity-averse. It involves choosing the decision that minimizes the maximum possible loss, ensuring a certain level of protection against the worst-case scenario under conditions of uncertainty.

In Decision Theory, what is the difference between a decision problem and a decision model?

  1. A decision problem is a real-world situation where a decision needs to be made, while a decision model is a mathematical representation of the problem.

  2. A decision problem is a hypothetical scenario where a decision needs to be made, while a decision model is a real-world representation of the problem.

  3. A decision problem is a mathematical representation of a real-world situation where a decision needs to be made, while a decision model is a hypothetical scenario where a decision needs to be made.

  4. A decision problem is a real-world situation where a decision needs to be made, while a decision model is a mathematical representation of a hypothetical scenario where a decision needs to be made.


Correct Option: A
Explanation:

In Decision Theory, a decision problem refers to a real-world situation where a decision needs to be made, involving various factors such as uncertainty, preferences, and potential outcomes. A decision model, on the other hand, is a mathematical representation of the decision problem, using tools like probability theory and utility theory to analyze and compare different decision alternatives.

Which concept in Decision Theory quantifies the decision-maker's preference for receiving a payoff sooner rather than later?

  1. Time Preference

  2. Risk Aversion

  3. Regret

  4. Utility


Correct Option: A
Explanation:

Time Preference measures the decision-maker's preference for receiving a payoff sooner rather than later. It quantifies the value that the decision-maker places on the timeliness of receiving a payoff, often represented by a discount factor.

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